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Author(s): 

ASAKEREH H. | RAZMI R.

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2012
  • Volume: 

    2
  • Issue: 

    7-8
  • Pages: 

    118-117
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    4017
  • Downloads: 

    745
Abstract: 

Introduction: Precipitation REGIME refers to the distribution of precipitation over time and depicts the number of cycles per year. Most of the economic activities (e.g. agriculture) in every given region are adapted to the precipitation REGIME. The CHANGE in precipitation REGIME can affect these activities as it affects water resources. Accordingly, it is important to analyze these CHANGEs in every geographical region.A CHANGE in the precipitation REGIME as a CHANGE in the temporal pattern of precipitation is one of the effects and results of climate CHANGE. This phenomenon is has received much attention from climatology experts. They have studied this phenomenon using many techniques. One of the most important features in analyzing the CHANGE of precipitation REGIME is to study the periodicity of different harmonics. The harmonic number shows the number of cycles during the year. For example first harmonic shows one cycle per year while the second harmonic shows two cycles and … in one year

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2023
  • Volume: 

    12
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    55-77
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    362
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

نقش روشنفکران در شکل گیری انقلاب اسلامی ایران و کوشش آنان برای ارتقای آگاهی سیاسی مردم امری انکارناپذیر است. هدف این مقاله مطالعه سیر تحول روشنفکری در ایران، به منظور بررسی زمینه های تغییر بیعت روشنفکران با رژیم پهلوی و همینطور نتایج آن بر وقوع انقلاب است. بر مبنای یک تقسیم بندی، روشنفکران ایرانی از آغاز تا پایان دورة پهلوی در سه نسل قرار می گیرند: نسل اول: روشنفکران عصر حیرت؛ نسل دوم: روشنفکران شبه مدرن یا غرب گرا و نسل سوم: روشنفکران بومی گرا. روشنفکران نسل اول و دوم تحت تاثیر اندیشه غرب گرایی و تجدد آمرانه بودند، اما نسل سوم با گذر از نوسازی آمرانه و غرب گرایی، بیشتر رنگ و بوی مذهبی و بازگشت به هویت خویشتن به خود گرفت. هدف اندیشه گران این جریان، احیای تفکر جدیدی درباره دین و هویت بومی بود. همانطور که کرین برینتون نیز در کتاب کالبدشکافی انقلاب آورده است، جابه جایی وفاداری روشنفکران را می توان یکی از نشانه های وضعیت پیشا انقلابی دانست. روشنفکران بومی گرا، که تا آن زمان، آرمان ها و مسیر متفاوتی از باقی قشرهای جامعه در پیش گرفته بودند، در کنار توده مردم قرار گرفتند و این تغییر رویه، به تعبیر کرین برینتون نشان از «تغییر بیعت روشنفکران» داشت و در وقوع انقلاب اسلامی نقش تاثیرگذاری داشت.

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Author(s): 

NOURI SARI HOJATOLLAH

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2023
  • Volume: 

    20
  • Issue: 

    72
  • Pages: 

    137-158
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    60
  • Downloads: 

    7
Abstract: 

Lifestyle is one of the main concerns of thinkers in the field of social sciences and cultural field,However, due to the slowness of the lifestyle CHANGE process, political and security analysts see this category less as a strategic and security factor. Therefore, the present article deals with the relationship between the CHANGE of lifestyle and the CHANGE of political REGIME, in which the policies of the American government towards the Islamic Republic of Iran are emphasized. The main question of this research is: "What is the relationship between the CHANGE of lifestyle and the CHANGE of the political REGIME and how does the American government follow the CHANGE of the political system in Iran by affecting the life pattern of Iranians? " Surveys show that the process of changing the lifestyle produces a new form of social tastes among the mass of people and even the elite part of the societies. As a result, with the emergence of new political demands and the politicians who believe in the emerging models, the political system, by revising its previous process, steps on the path of changing the political REGIME.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2011
  • Volume: 

    6
  • Issue: 

    4 (24)
  • Pages: 

    145-177
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1164
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Food safety is among the phenomena affecting the global policy making in the recent years and it has entered into the literature of international relations as a serious discussion. For the past two decades, food safety has become the focus of attention of international actors via organs affiliated to the UNO and we are gradually witnessing the formation of the international food safety REGIME. What is the nature of the international food safety REGIME? This research would generalize the three elements of an international REGIME i.e. "normalization functions", "establishment of international regulations" and "regulatory system" to the case of food safety and it would be clarified that the international food safety REGIME is recognizable as one independent REGIME. The international food safety REGIME is already illuminating the need of security theories to focus on soft and civil aspects in analyzing the components of insecurity. In this study a model for international food safety REGIME is offered compared to other international REGIMEs.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2019
  • Volume: 

    44
  • Issue: 

    4
  • Pages: 

    587-602
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1194
  • Downloads: 

    465
Abstract: 

Expanded Abstract: Introduction: In the recent decades, temperature has increased and rainfall has CHANGEd significantly. Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate CHANGE (IPCC) surveys the average temperature of the earth has grown about 0. 6° C in the twentieth century. Understanding the impacts of these CHANGEs on watershed hydrology is important for human society and ecological processes. Nowadays, with releasing fifth series of General Circulation Models (GCMs) by IPCC, new researches have been focusing on the effects of climate CHANGE by statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models. Potential impacts of climatic CHANGEs on aquatic ecosystems species, nutrient delivery, temperatures and hydrology have been studied. ...

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2020
  • Volume: 

    16
  • Issue: 

    64
  • Pages: 

    125-149
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    481
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

In this study, for the first time, we model gasoline consumption behavior in Iran using the long-term memory model of the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average and non-linear Markov-Switching REGIME CHANGE model. Initially, the long-term memory feature of the ARFIMA model is investigated using the data from 1927 to 2017. The results indicate that the time series studied has a long-term memory. Therefore, after this step and determining the autoregressive lag (AR) and moving average (MA) values, the demand for gasoline in the Iranian economy is estimated using ARFIMA model (1. 0. 28. 2). We also estimate gasoline consumption in Iran using Markov-Switching model, with the MSH model based on the lowest Akaike with 3 REGIMEs and 2 lags. Finally, for modeling gasoline consumption behaviors, the Markov-switching model based is superior to the ARFIMA model. Our findings indicate that if we do not use the most appropriate model for estimating future demand for gasoline, policy making in this area will not be optimal.

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Author(s): 

CULLET P.

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    1999
  • Volume: 

    8
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    34-36
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    1
  • Views: 

    181
  • Downloads: 

    0
Keywords: 
Abstract: 

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Journal: 

Geopolitics Quarterly

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2023
  • Volume: 

    19
  • Issue: 

    3
  • Pages: 

    34-61
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    27
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Extended AbstractIntrductionThe crisis in Iraq as the result of Ethnic-Religious conflicts, has been one of the oldest crisises in the middle during the 21st century. Some of the researchers argue that lack of integrity among different religious and ethnic groups in Iraq to form a nation state has been the main result of the current crisis. In fact, the Ethnic-Religious conflicts through the current century since 1921, has caused the lack of integrity between different of Ethnic-Religious groups. Regarding this point of view, The dominance of Sunni governers through the 21st century and on the other hand the dominance of shiite governers in Iraq through the post Saddam Era, has been a considerable factor regarding the current conflicts in Iraq. The political dominance for each of the above mentioned governers has brought a sort of deprivation of political stance and power for the other. It has also caused a great deal of reactions in form of movements and ethnical tensions. MethodologyThe current research has a different approach in comparison to the past ones. There is a focus on the hegemonic role and the political interference by The US while examining the roots for the continuity of the ethnic tensions in Iraq through the 21st century. The research method in this article is descriptive-analytic and the data collection method is based on library resources. FindingsBefore the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, the idea historically became prevalent among conservatives that democracies should be able to suppress their enemies with full authority, even by force. According to this view, the creation of a weak democracy can not survive. Thus, the use of force to establish and promote democracy and justice is not only permissible but also necessary. In this context, the most serious threat to democracy is from states that have not embraced democratic values. The neoconservatives believed that a CHANGE in autocratic REGIMEs, or, in modern parlance, insurgency, is a desirable means of preserving American democracy and security. These ideas became the basis for the creation of a kind of democracy known as "boot democracy".The occupation of Iraq, the rise of Shiites, the attempts to purge former members of the Ba'ath party of the new government, all led to a radical divergence that fueled and legitimized the Sunni uprising, which was both ideological and sectarian. The Salafi-jihadists, on the other hand, found a common goal with the former Ba'athists and other Islamist and nationalist groups to fight both foreign occupation and the new Shiite authority, which led to the formation of the Islamic State and the subsequent Islamic State of Syria and Iraq. It took the form of a dispute over geographical territory between ethnic and religious groups in Iraq, in general, the rivalry between the Shiite majority and the Sunni minority has been at the center of the dispute over nation-state building since the fall of Saddam. In fact, sectarian tendencies have affected the state-building process and caused insecurity in the country. But the Iraqi government has not made a clear effort to overcome this division and build a common national identity. In fact, some of these measures have led to further secession and a conflicting government. Historically, the separation of Shiites and Sunnis has been driven by disagreement over political, religious, and doctrinal issues, but its modern manifestation has led society to compete for power, resources, geography, and government. It is formed in the form of a system of religious-ethnic representation. These institutionalizations of sectarian identity have led to differences over the status, size, boundaries, and power of each of the two Sunni and Shiite communities. These differences have an unstable effect, especially when they legitimize the violent actions of groups that claim to represent their community. ConclusionsDifferent sections of Iraqi society have different memories and historical narratives about what Iraq is and should be. To monitor the country's major divisions, Iraq needs to undertake a fundamental overhaul of the laws that govern the country's current political system. The new political system has been a compromise between the idea that an Iraqi nation exists independently of its sub-communities, and the idea that the Iraqi nation is nothing more than a subset of its sub-communities. The contradictory effects of these two currents have affected the constitutional process and political differences and social dynamics.The dominance of the nationalization paradigm portrayed Iraq as a multicultural society whose communities need to expand an integrated system of government. This is in contrast to the classical notion of nation-building, by a nationalism, integration, and approach that strengthens a center of hegemony and marginalizes shared local identities. Although the constitution does not explicitly state that the distribution of power is based on separate communities, the methods of distributing power in Iraq further validate sectarian identities as a political classification.According to the processes, three scenarios can be imagined for the future of Iraq:The first scenario is to end the crisis and maintain the current political structure won the basis of centralism. Maintaining the current structure of Iraq depends on several conditions. First, the failure of the Islamic State is the most important challenge to the stability and integration of Iraq and its complete withdrawal from Iraq, which current processes indicate the success of this process in the short and long term. The second is to reduce sectarianism and increase Sunni confidence in the Iraqi political structure, which depends on the serious participation of Sunnis in the political structure. In fact, in order to maintain the unified political structure of Iraq, the Sunnis must first have a significant presence in the Iraqi governing branches, in order to eliminate the Sunni perception of being marginalized in the power structure. Second, the Iraqi electoral system must move towards a system of trans-religious-ethnic representation based on factional-intellectual rivalries, as was somewhat shaped in the 2010 national elections. The third is the reform of the constitution and the creation of new mechanisms based on the distribution of income commensurate with the sectors and structures of Iraq. Also, paying more attention to the natives of the officials in the provincial executive bodies can help this process. Fourth is the non-interference of regional powers, including the GCC and Turkey, in Iraq's security efforts, which could, to a large extent, lead to Iraqi political stability as well as sectarian-religious trust. Finally, it seems that in this scenario, the Kurdistan Regional Government will continue to play a role as an autonomous government.The second scenario is the full implementation of federalism in Iraq.The third scenario is the division of Iraq into three climates, Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni, which was re-introduced by the US Congress in 2014 (the plan was proposed in 2007 by Joe Biden).In fact, although the plan to divide Iraq was put forward in the US policy-making system, the United States is not yet pursuing this plan seriously, and the fight against the Islamic State is still a more important priority. Finally, it seems that considering the political processes and the unity of the Shiites with the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran, this scenario is the most unlikely scenario among the three scenarios mentioned.

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2007
  • Volume: 

    29
  • Issue: 

    3
  • Pages: 

    453-462
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    1
  • Views: 

    128
  • Downloads: 

    0
Keywords: 
Abstract: 

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Author(s): 

Anand V. | Oinam B.

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2019
  • Volume: 

    5
  • Issue: 

    4
  • Pages: 

    471-484
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    169
  • Downloads: 

    99
Abstract: 

Hydrological components in a river basin can get adversely affected by climate CHANGE in coming future. Manipur River basin lies in the extreme northeast region of India nestled in the lesser Himalayan ranges and it is under severe pressure from anthropogenic and natural factors. Basin is un-gauged as it lies in remote location and suffering from large data scarcity. This paper explores the impact of climate CHANGE towards understanding the inter-relationships between various complex hydrological factors in the river basin. An integrated approach is applied by coupling Soil and Water Assessment Hydrological Model and Hadley Center Coupled Model based on temperature, rainfall and geospatial data. Future representative concentration pathways 2. 6, 4. 5 and 8. 5 scenarios for 2050s and 2090s decades were used to evaluate the effects of climatic CHANGEs on hydrological parameters. Both annual mean temperature and annual precipitation is predicted to be increased by 2. 07oC and 62% under RCP 8. 5 by the end of 21st century. This study highlights that CHANGE in meteorological parameters will lead to significant CHANGE in the hydrological REGIME of the basin. Runoff, actual evapotranspiration and water yield are expected to be increased by 40. 96 m3/s, 52. 2% and 86. 8% respectively under RCP 8. 5. This study shows that water yield and evapotranspiration will be most affected by increase in precipitation and temperature in the upper and middle subbasins. Different region within the basin is likely to be affected by frequent landslides and flood in coming decades.

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